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Shot Caller: A Podcast by Shannon Sagawe

Feb 25, 2022

Hello Shot Callers, This is an investor friendly overview of our economic & market reality meant to help you breakdown the current economic environment through the lense of the global economy as well as the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

This short podcast covers some key economic indicators that have been bubbling to the surface, leading up to the current and stressful geo-political environment causing the markets to become very volatile.

What do I discuss?

  • The December 3% drop in real personal discretionary income.
  • Consumer Confidence Labor Market Differential number and why this is something to look at now.  It has just hit a cycle peak not seen since the mid 1960's. What could this mean for the performance of the S&P 500?
  • Inflation concerns and the potential response from the Federal Reserve
    • Expecting a 25-50 bps increase in March.
  • Explanation of what it means when High Yield Bond spreads are increasing.  Why should investors pay attention to this?
  • Real Estate- What could be the impact to real estate asset prices if the fed raises rates, inflation continues and consumers discretionary income is dropping? 
    • Reference to the 2008 Financial Crisis
    • Rental inflation is rising rapidly
  • The recent return differential between growth and value stocks
  • David Einhorn "recession" prediction
    • Rent of Income is the biggest component, at 32%, of the Consumer Price Index.
  • The potential global economic impact from the Russian invasion of the Ukraine
    • Russia's biggest trading partners
    • The Russian impact on their markets and the Ruble 
    • Financial Sanctions and their impact: SWIFT, etc.
    • The ability for the US/Europe/Japan to continue growing as they represent 50% of the global economy
    • UBS CIO & Economist discussion on Feb. 24th
      • Historically 3 months after a global shock due to conflicts over oil, the markets were back up
      • Sanctions will have a material impact on the Russian economy
      • The situation Germany is in, being the most vulnerable to Russian energy, reinforces the need for more green energy.
    • Some specific action points existing investors and new investors can do now to put themselves in a good position- managing risk/reward!  Warren Buffet's advice is included:)
  • Listen to  my podcast on FEAR with Stefan Labas, executive health coach.  If nothing else, our timing was good to release a podcast on fear this week. I highly encourage you to listen as these global shocks have consequences beyond wealth.
  • If you need personal coaching to establish ongoing financial confidence, reduce uncertainty, and build a road map; check out the new 3 session coaching course

Other references:

Eckhart Tolle