Feb 25, 2022
Hello Shot Callers, This is an investor friendly overview of our
economic & market reality meant to help you breakdown the current
economic environment through the lense of the global economy as
well as the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
This short podcast covers some key economic indicators that have
been bubbling to the surface, leading up to the current and
stressful geo-political environment causing the markets to become
What do I discuss?
- The December 3% drop in real personal
- Consumer Confidence Labor Market Differential number and why
this is something to look at now. It has just hit a cycle
peak not seen since the mid 1960's. What could this mean for the
performance of the S&P 500?
- Inflation concerns and the potential response from the Federal
- Expecting a 25-50 bps increase in March.
- Explanation of what it means when High Yield Bond
spreads are increasing. Why should investors pay
attention to this?
- Real Estate- What could be the impact to real estate asset
prices if the fed raises rates, inflation continues and consumers
discretionary income is dropping?
- Reference to the 2008 Financial Crisis
- Rental inflation is rising rapidly
- The recent return differential between growth and value
- David Einhorn "recession"
- Rent of Income is the biggest component, at 32%, of the
Consumer Price Index.
- The potential global economic impact from the Russian invasion
of the Ukraine
- Russia's biggest trading partners
- The Russian impact on their markets and the Ruble
- Financial Sanctions and their impact: SWIFT, etc.
- The ability for the US/Europe/Japan to continue growing as they
represent 50% of the global economy
- UBS CIO & Economist discussion on Feb. 24th
- Historically 3 months after a global shock due to conflicts
over oil, the markets were back up
- Sanctions will have a material impact on the Russian
- The situation Germany is in, being the most vulnerable to
Russian energy, reinforces the need for more green energy.
- Some specific action points existing investors
and new investors can do now to put themselves in a good position-
managing risk/reward! Warren Buffet's advice is included:)
- Listen to my podcast on FEAR with
Stefan Labas, executive health
coach. If nothing else, our timing was good to release a
podcast on fear this week. I highly encourage you to listen as
these global shocks have consequences beyond wealth.
- If you need personal coaching to establish ongoing financial
confidence, reduce uncertainty, and build a road map; check out the
3 session coaching course.